@ ziemo did you thought about entering only on 80ret and 100 ret with increasing position size?
like in your last case with problematic price going up and down
1st position - sell on 80ret 0.1lot
2nd position - buy on 100ret 0.15lot (or 0.2?)
and you should be in profit before price starts to move back down
so one sell at 80, then one buy at 100 with bigger lot. And how about, when the price goes down then? another entry at 80 with bigger lot? That will come to pure martingale. What do you think about it?
well yes, but i believe in scott carneys words that PRZ points are "make or break" points, when price will bounced quickly from it or break it fast without coming back
its just an idea
About the martingale approach, I will soon start here another thread but I can say already, that I did some research, and I've seen the situations, where the price have been going like 9 times from 80 to 100 ret without going anywhere further. Martingale with r:r 1:1 it's a very risky game. I tried also other risk:rewards, but more abuot that on the next thread. Here let's focus on the grid itself.
Your volcano setup
I like your ideas, and will certainly try them out. However I have some major reservations about your approach, which I will explain.
that being said, I am going to use Prof Nemoin's Zup indicator (v86) to find
a classic harmonic setup pattern, then apply your target lines to it, using at least a 4H chart and
probably an offline 6H chart. I expect that this approach will increase the profitability of your
The problem you will find crop up frequently on low TF's is that harmonics setups occur much quicker subsequently which
could be the cause of your failed setups.
Also, instead of your target lines which I think are fatally arbitrary, I am going to try and test
trade using pythagorean proportionate lines from the main harmonic structure that presents
itself to trade off of.
when we study harmonic structures in depth we will always find the ratios and proportions of Phi and phi occur, and if we
stick to the main principles of the Golden Ratio construction we have to be right when dealing with any attempts to
(a) trade a harmonic structure and (b) set take profit levels off of these structures.....
just my humble opinion....
...and thanks for stimulating my thoughts on what I regard as the most important structure/patterns when trading the markets,
to quote Johannes Kepler (1571-1630)
"Geometry has two great treasures: one is the theorem of Pythagoras; the other, the division of a line into extreme and mean ratio.
. The first we may compare to a measure of gold; the second we may name a precious jewel."
hi, thanks for your opinion, it's always nice to see others point of view.
I would like to comment this part:
"The problem you will find crop up frequently on low TF's is that harmonics setups occur much quicker subsequently which
could be the cause of your failed setups."
I don't think so mate, I observe the martket and harmonic patterns from a long time now, using my eyes only, not zup or any other indicators like that (which I find very poor), and what my experience is: when you take 20 patterns from M5 chart, and 20 patterns from H4 charts, there would be no significant difference in the win ratio between them I think many harmonic traders would agree with me. But anyway, here we talk not about winning ratio, but the idea of position management, so I don't want to go into details with this topic
@ziemo: I am testing on my small but live account the grid ideas, so far so good ->
Looking forward to see the next ones from your grid trading series BTW: How many grid systems ideas you will present here? Well done, anyway!
I believe what is described here, will fit nicely into this.
Last edited by CamaRon; 10-30-2012 at 05:19 PM.
Originally Posted by ziemo
I take on board what you're saying, and thanks for your reply, but perhaps you have missed my point. My point is at this stage for me, I am not trying to be right or wrong about any approach to the market which involves harmonics.
All I wanted to pass on to you is my experiential understanding and some observations so far with harmonics, and therefore all I want to accomplish next is to thoroughly understand everything I need to understand about harmonics
before I form a definite opinion about using harmonics as a methodology both in the win ratio AND position management areas.
What your reply HAS stimulated me to do is to do the due diligence to look for the harmonic setups that occur and not in fact use indicators. However, I disagree with you about the Zup indicator as being poor, but I do agree that it has some shortfalls, which I am aware of and have
compensated for when I use the Zup. I must also mention that many coders have taken Prof Nemoins work and altered it, so its important for me to mention Prof's zup and not any other.
I am currently studying Scott Carneys work and thereby am being encouraged to recognize and set up the harmonic structures by hand, rather than relying on Zup which kind of makes one mentally lazy!
Lastly, please done take my prior post comments as criticism, and would urge you to view them as comments for discussion. I would like to know and understand how and why you came up with the target levels, but I dont want to bore anyone in the forum with these questions,
so i will attempt to answer my queries by looking at past posts.
hi Richard, many thansk for the reply. relax pal, of course I know that these are all suggestions of what can be done, not words like: "you should do like this and that" I appreciate every try of improving the presented system, every thought can be the turning point, so don't hasitate guys and share absolutely any ideas!
About zup indicator, I don't like it from one reason: it shows on the charts a lot of rubbish patterns, which I will never call harmonics. If something matches Fibonacci price criteria, it doesn't mean to me, that I can call it a harmonic pattern. So I would rather stay with searching harmonics using my eyes, or will use AMPmonitor to alert me about comming setups (because in my opinion, this is the only one harmonic patterns searching engine, that provides correct harmonics and delivers also strong confirmations. It is still in testing stage though). But about indicators there is a separate thread, so I don't want to come into discussion about that