I would like to post here some trades that I take using harmonic patterns. My main reason for doing that, is actually to learn something from you guys, any comments, any clues, are very very welcome. If you would trade it differently or don't take something at all, if you have some other way to execute the trades, different approach - feel free to share your opinions
On the other hand, if anyone will learn something good from this thread - it would be awesome.
My main goal for now is to make my win ratio a little bit higher (for now it's something between 30-35% of winning trades). It's actually not so bad, because these are all low-risk / high-reward trades. Even if I have a couple of bad trades, sometimes one win transaction pays it all back. If you have some nice tips for me looking at my screenshots - don't hasitate to post it here
good thread.. I'll follow it!
is it eur usd?
these are screenshots from major pairs, they are actually pretty small, I have to change something to make them look bigger on the forum...
Hi ziemo, nice job, the first image of yesterday was going quite well, did you loose on that too? or moved to break even? you know, this period i have seen so many failed patterns, this greek debt situation make the technical analisys quite useless, every time a minister say something the market move and ruin the pattern... Before this summer i was having a winning result about 80%, now it's something like -80% , i m really pissed... By the way, just take the bullish butterfly On EURUSD this morning, 130 pips, the ecb suddenly decide to cut the interest rate and a big bearish candle ruined the run... but still 130 pips, not bad
nice one! 130pips is never bad haha
Yep, I have the same feeling - because of the situation in Greece we all have a "nice" mess on our charts... The best example: couple of hours ago, almost on every major pair on smaller TF's.. It's like a toss of a coin, because you never know what those crazy guys on G20 wold say:P
It looks like it's a little bit hard time to trade, but there is one good point: you win quickly or you loose quickly :P
My solution for that is quite simple: I try to involve only in low risk / high reward trades. Even I have 6 loss trades in a row, one win trade brings me back in profit.
Yesterday I wasn't lucky. All of my trades were loosers. This is because I use as my target point C. I enter and then I wait: win or loss. The only quicker exit is when some big news is comming, then I shut the trade 5 mins before the release.
I'm thinking about some other exit strategy, to quit a little bit sooner, having not so great r:r, but better win ratio.
But still haven't found some good solution for it :P
1. you apply good confirmation indicator (standard deviation based), this gives you already an edge (if you use it well)
2. i see the second edge you get from Supply/Demand levels
good luck, you will do well...
I would like to ask You something guys:
how do you react, when some big news is comming? Let's say, it's marked as a red one on forexfactory callendar.
I used to not to enter, or if I'm already in - quit before the big news is being released. That makes sense, when you trade on M1 or M5, but if you trade harmonics on let's say M30 or H1? then almos every trade should be shutted off quicker...
I've heard two opinions about news releases:
1. You can not trade! Trading when the news is comming is like a toss of a coin, market can go anywhere and ruin your technical analysis (to be honest, you can never know where the market would go, and you can never expect anything, it's a pure numbers game anyway:P we can only look for our edge and stack odds in our favour)
2. If you use only technical analysis, you shouldn't care about news release. The news is only making the action quicker, with or without it - the result would be probably the same. You can't say, that if you avoid trading during news releases it will make your win ratio higher.
what is your opinion about that?
For example: take a look at my 121 (winner) from EU M15. The entry was straight when the USD news was published. But it was M15, and I saw great potential on that trade (nice demand level, strong move in price, pattern was located nicely on the chart). Maybe the shape of this 121 was not so perfect, but hey: it was like 9:1 reward/risk ratio. Even if I loss 9 trades like this one in a row, only one winner will take me back to the break even! I think it wasn't so bad idea to take it :P