01-23-2012, 11:11 PM #111
01-24-2012, 06:55 AM #112
I am unsure of exactly where to enter my trade after a patter was spotted?Maybe you should look at the previous candle high or low?If anybody can clear this up for me i'd appreciate it
01-24-2012, 07:15 AM #113
@alijilani: i use sometimes korHarmonics 7.3, but it's private version
@damindor: check the TradingArsenal videos, they explain you the entry techniques, together with some confirmation techniques. --> http://tradingarsenal.com/showthread...adingArsenalTV
01-25-2012, 06:54 AM #114
Eur/Usd Weekly and Dayli analisys
Hi guys, i'm opening a new thread instead of posting in the EurUsd trades thread because i'm not posting any potential pattern or signal to trade, in this new thread i'm going to post what we can expect from this currencie in the day and in the week, these videos are from Sive Morten, i'm following these analisys since few months already and they are incredibly accurate, for a better understanding of some concepts i suggest you to read also Dinapoli book ok?
Here the video of today
yesterday price action held in some range, but, as I suppose with positive sign. Personally I suppose that chances to higher move are greater than down, but let's discuss all possibilities, since this is just my own opinion:"
Asap i will add the text version of the video
01-25-2012, 07:06 AM #115
yesterday price action has held in some range, so on daily time frame it looks like high wave pattern, indicating market indecision. There is nothing to add on daily time picture, since all suggestions we've discussed in yesterday's update.
On 4-hour time frame we see that trend is bearish and nice divergence with MACD. At the same time, market stands flat. That could be a bullish dynamic pressure and could lead to futher continuation to upside.
Also, pay attention, that yesterday market has shown just 0.382 retracement as we've suggested could be a context for 3-Drive "sell" pattern.
On hourly time frame we also see most recent AB=CD pattern, that has the same target as 3-Drive and it stands around 1.3130. Crucial point fo today's session is low at 1.2950 area. If market will move below it - it will erase potential butterfly "Sell" that could be formed on hourly chart as a part of 3-Drive pattern, second, it will alter (if not cancel totally) current AB=CD pattern. In this case 3-Drive will be under questions, and market could shift to forming of H&S on 4-hour time frame . This opportunity we've discussed also yesterday.
Still, personally I suppose that upward move and completion of 3-Drive has more chances than reversal. But this is just my own opinion - one thing is opinion while quite other is reality...
01-25-2012, 02:55 PM #116
lucky trades from today
01-25-2012, 03:18 PM #117
... on the picture our AMP indicator in action :-)
Last edited by kor4x; 01-25-2012 at 04:25 PM.
01-25-2012, 05:02 PM #118
01-26-2012, 07:18 AM #119
Hi guys, this is the analisys of today
"although upward momentum is solid on daily time frame , but this is first pullback after long-term bear trend and retracement could happen at any time. We have to be careful enough, to catch the signs of it:"
Although FOMC meeting has added some tricks to our trading plan, still market has proceeded higher as we've suggested.
Speaking about daily time frame , we have to note that in fact, this is the first pullback after solid long-term downward trend. What features of the first pullback exist?
1. It hardly will be too extended. We already see that pullback is greater compares to previous swing down. That is typical for longer retracement or even reversals.
2. Market shows at least 0.618 retracement after initial pullbacks.
Hence, we have to be aware of this 0.618 retracement. The problem though, that based on daily time frame we can't say when it could start. May be it can start right from current level - this is monthly pivot, Fib resistance at 1.3141 and completement point of 4-hour 3-Drive.
Or may be it can start from 1.3240, since this is daily K- resistance and target of 3-Drive buy... But this deep pullback will happen, no doubt.
So, to not been hurt by it, we have to be careful and monitor intraday charts.
On 4-hour time frame trend has turned bullish . Market has accomplished AB=CD pattern, but not quite reached 1.618 extension of third drive, monthly pivot and Fib resistance . Probably it should do this before (and if) retracement will start.
On hourly time frame we can see why market has adjusted our C point, of AB-CD pattern, that we've discussed yesterday as neccesary condition of Butterfly. That was due downward AB=CD and "222" buy pattern. Market just completed this downward AB-CD and then reversed to the upside.
Now we have two support levels. 1.3070 and K- support 1.3030-1.3040, that is also previous resistance zone and 50% support of thrusting up bar.
So, how we can act in current environment?
1. We are at resistance and 3-Drive completement point - this is not the time to enter long. Wait a pullback.
2. Probably market will hit first 1.3140 and start retracement second (if it will start it);
3. If market will accelerate solidly above 1.3140 without any respect, then it will proceed to 1.3240 and 3-Drive should be treated as failed;
4. If it will start retracement down - keep an eye on 1.3030 K- support . If market will break it, then it will show 0.618 retracement on daily time frame and will take 1.2930 3-Drive min target objective.
That's being said - two levels to watch - 1.3140 and 1.3030 K- support .
01-27-2012, 06:58 AM #120
Hi folks, this is the dayli analisys
market has hit yesterday destination point of 3-Drive "Sell" pattern and turned to some retracement. Will this retracement become deep, as we're expecting on daily time frame , or market will show shallow retracement and proceed higher?"
yesterday's price action almost invisible on daily time frame . One thing that we can see is that market has tested as monthly pivot as 1.3147 Fib resistance .
As we've said yesterday, this is first pullback after solid bear trend. So it can't last forever, because "V" bottoms quite unstable. Sooner or later market should turn to downward retracement, and this retracement will be at least 0.618. In short-term perspective our major task is to get first clues of this correction but it hardly could be done on daily time frame . We need intraday charts.
Today I use also 8-hour chart, since here you can clearer see some important details:
1. Yesterday price action has given us nice bearish engulfing pattern, that could be very helpful for those who would like to enter short. Since they can use its top as a crucial point of downward scenario;
2. Pay attention that this pattern has appeared right at the finish point of 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. Target of 3-Drive "Sell" is low of 1.2930- between 2d and 3d drives.
Who knows, may be particularly this 3-drive will become triggering pattern of daily correction to 1.2840?
On 4hour time frame is quite the same picture. One thing that I would like to mention here is trend - it's bearish .
on hourly chart trend is also bearish . We have solid area of support around 1.30-1.3030 level - K- support , Agreement with potential AB=CD pattern and previous classical support /resistance level that we've discussed yesterday. This will be nearest target of potential downward move.
So,we have trading plan for bears. Since as hourly as 4-hour trends are bearish and market stands at resistance after completing some bearish patterns - this suggests that down move will be a bit deeper, at least to 1.30-1.3030 area. Crucial point of bears is top at 1.3186.
But is what about bulls?
At the same reasons this is not the time to enter long. I suspect that bulls should wait at least till 1.30-1.3030 and then keep a close eye on trend. If hourly and 4 hour trends will shift bullish and market will start to show some kind of thrusting move, then they probably can try to enter at nearest 0.382 Fib support . In this case very probable that market will proceed to 1.3220-1.3240 level.
The one problem with bullish scenario is that it hardly will realize today - it's not much time rest...