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Thread: Price reversal points

  1. #241
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    Hi Kolapo,

    Do you plot your own COT Data or use Steve Briese @ Bullish Review.

    Regards

    Steve P

  2. #242
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    Hi SMP i use buyers and sellers coded years back by a commercial trader,it gives the volume flow of bulls and bears kind off, because cot by Steve Briese is on mondays and fridays.I use Fx correlator 5b to watch the forex market.Fxcm gives me like a twice daily COT on SSI.Regards

  3. #243
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    Hi Kolapo,

    Bit confused with your use of COT. Steve Briese produces First Look at the weekend then the full report on Monday morning.
    COT data is only released once per week (Friday 3.30pm ET). Position reporting is a legal requirement in the futures market for commercials and large specs and not a legal requirement in the cash markets.

    So any data that fxcm produces, by definition does not include commercials or large specs because they do not trade on fxcms' platform and is not a futures market. They cover retail small specs who according to COT theory are nearly always wrong. So an fx correlator on fxcm data is more of a momentum indicator and has nothing to do with COT.

    Am I missing something, please elaborate.

    Regards
    Steve P

    Quote Originally Posted by kolapo View Post
    Hi SMP i use buyers and sellers coded years back by a commercial trader,it gives the volume flow of bulls and bears kind off, because cot by Steve Briese is on mondays and fridays.I use Fx correlator 5b to watch the forex market.Fxcm gives me like a twice daily COT on SSI.Regards

  4. #244
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    Hi Steve P,

    My brain works best with diagrams rather than words, so could you please post a pic of your explanation on the forum? Thanks.

    Cheers,


    Mike

  5. #245
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    Good Morning Mike,

    I have been in several discussions, what would you like a diagram/chart of.

    Regards
    Steve P

    Quote Originally Posted by blott View Post
    Hi Steve P,

    My brain works best with diagrams rather than words, so could you please post a pic of your explanation on the forum? Thanks.

    Cheers,


    Mike

  6. #246
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    Quote Originally Posted by SMPFutures View Post
    Good Morning Mike,

    I have been in several discussions, what would you like a diagram/chart of.

    Regards
    Steve P
    Hi Steve,
    Maybe I should have sent you a picture of my request. It was in response to your post 241, re PM.

    BTW, it seems price has not rebounced lower off the TL - see pic - but has gone up.

    So, this indicates that the longer range TL marked with red dashes was not as strong as first thought. Time will tell if price drops down to test that TL again, or pushes back down again and continues on.

    Cheers,


    Mike

  7. #247
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    Hi Mike,

    Remember I only have a snap shot of your channels and lines in croped format.
    I have posted two of my euro charts to add context. The first one is daily.

    Price reversal points-eur-d.png

    As you can see, your price action is unfolding around the center line of the orange channel.
    Center line action is usually whippy. The main trend is clearly down. If you day trade then its clearly up.
    So the type of trader you are dictates trend interpretation.

    Below is the 8hr chart (my lowest for fx analysis)

    Price reversal points-eur8hr.png

    If you look at the mid Jan low it did not reach the outer channel line, this may be a medium/long term trend change. The orange and blue channel appears to support this view.

    In summary your initial post provided mixed signals around a center line which in my experience is dangerous territory. There is a world of difference between forecasting/analysis and trading.

    Regards
    Steve P

  8. #248
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    Hi SMP ,you are right about the COT reports,but a lot of commercial professional traders have programs to watch volume flow in the market, they see if more buyers than sellers are coming into the market,or more sellers than buyers.The key for me is when price reach projected level ,do we have a reversal or a continuation.The volume flow analysis of buyers and sellers helps to know where the market is heading next.Like i said earlier some use sine wave correlation,some use fx correlator for currency strength.it is reinforced when the COT comes out.I can do a Pm showing what i mean.I use 4 hrs upwards.FXCM approach with SSI is debatable i agree its only retail traders positions.

  9. #249
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    Thanks Kolapo,

    That clears things up for me. No need for PM on this topic, thanks for the offer, I'm a Channel Surfer, period.
    Just on a disclosure note I am a subscriber to Steve Briese and his Bullish Review.
    For those who are interested in COT try this link Interpreting and Understanding COT Data with the "Authority" on COT Analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by kolapo View Post
    Hi SMP ,you are right about the COT reports,but a lot of commercial professional traders have programs to watch volume flow in the market, they see if more buyers than sellers are coming into the market,or more sellers than buyers.The key for me is when price reach projected level ,do we have a reversal or a continuation.The volume flow analysis of buyers and sellers helps to know where the market is heading next.Like i said earlier some use sine wave correlation,some use fx correlator for currency strength.it is reinforced when the COT comes out.I can do a Pm showing what i mean.I use 4 hrs upwards.FXCM approach with SSI is debatable i agree its only retail traders positions.

  10. #250
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    HI All,
    I am having some confusion in identifying balance points and which highs/lows to use to project into the BP(s) to arrive at a target. In this pic,
    Price reversal points-20120309-svry-177kb.jpg
    I have used the 50% tool to arrive at a BP at the blue jcircle, but there is a more obvious BP at the Doji in the yellow circle bove it. Next, do I use the line AA or line BC through the yellow circle, the line BB through the red circle, or draw another line through either of those circles from the swing high above A?

    Would be grateful if anywone could shed some light on this please.

    Mike

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