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Thread: Types of patterns and % of success

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2011

    Types of patterns and % of success

    Hi, i was looking on some statistics on ampmonitor, especially about the type of patterns succesfully completed... I' ve noticed that the pattern #1 of gartley, bat and one2one has a very high % of success.... then butterfly on #2 - 3 - 4 and 5#, am i correct? i mean there are how much, more than 6 types of every pattern, at least i' ve counted that much, but if i look on live patterns i can clearly see that most succesfully of them are #1 for gartley one2one and bat and the others are butterfly 2 - 3 - 4 -5 and 6....

    Can someone confirm this impression? or i'm just telling nonsense XD?

  2. #2
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    hi, been trying ask about the success of shark pattern as answer yet

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    A, A
    Gartley, Bat, 121, Butterfly are my favorite patterns. Using these names is a bit funny. PRO harmonics/market geometry traders do not operate with such names, we operate often with retracement percentages. Anyway … harmonic pattern names became somehow popular, so let it be… now we have even Shark  and lately we introduced Shark Playing Guitar pattern.

    Most of the information that I've found over the internet regarding the Gartley pattern suggests a success ratio of 60 to 80% (70% the most common). My personal opinion is that it is not proper to state any success percentage without specifying applied money management rules, instruments traded, timeframes of the trades, tested period, trading experience and applied confirmation methods. Clearly, with 2:1 RR you may reach your Take Profit level more often than you would with 3:1 RR and therefore success ratio percentage itself is useless.

    Over the years I enlarged my Arsenal of confirmations, learned about 12345s and the ABCs of Elliott Wave, and started to apply market cycles, trendlines, and price actions elements, join multi timeframe market fractals, Supply/Demand and PRZ. I look market very differently now and this also improved the success ratio. Psycho is the key.
    This is my success ratio from November 2011 trades. Tells you nothing if you do not know more how it was achieved.

    My friend applies very strict money management rules, his success ratio reported lately was only around 25-30% (depends on the month), but still he can be on plus after each 20 trades.
    Success ratio is very misleading concept.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    yes, I agree with Kor4x.. I'm happy to see this thread, I'm reading it and I can tell you that when I approached to harmonic, my trading became better, that because of I started to understand more clearly concepts that were "Unclear" for me (before my approach), concepts that I followed "blindly" without understand them.
    But now I know that behind an haromonic picture (like gartley or 121 etc..) there's something "mathematic" about that trend period (something that I can understand seeing lines and type of picture designed by KorHarmonic indicator), but I know also that I need Confirmation Methods (as Kor4x described in his last post) to follow it in an icy way.
    "Confirmations" and "Money management" for me are really important to follow harmonic in the market, and I know that I still have to learn a lot to follow with much more confidence this type of trading.

    But here we have people like kor4x, I like to learn, and I think this is the right place to do it.
    I recently had occasion to notice more closely the pattern 121 .. really intrigued me, because of its accuracy that I have seen in the trend. It really is a powerful pattern, in rare cases fail, but you can still betray the pattern failed, remembering the moment of the trend.
    Another tool that attracts me is the option kor4x indicator that allows me to see the pattern in progress, under construction, a sort of prediction .. Unfortunately, lately I have not seen this feature on the graph because of the market syncopated.
    and finally the pitchforks .. I like it as a tool used to analyze the time trend

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    we need to be a little careful how we interpret the stats. The so called 70% success rate is often attributed to a move to the B point only and not a full move to the further wing tip or point.

    Trading is all about having an edge or advantage to tip the probability in our favour. For sure harmonics will help us in this aim. It must be used with proper money management and preservation of capital and exposure management too. all these things will help to ensure a profitable experience.

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